1. Macroeconomic Backdrop
Economic growth—especially in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing—defines steel demand. A resilient GDP (bolstered by infrastructure spending) sustains consumption, while a sluggish property sector or global recession weakens pricing power.
2. Supply-Demand Dynamics
Supply: Mill operations (blast/electric furnace utilization) and production cuts (e.g., crude steel curbs) directly impact market balance. Low inventory levels (e.g., 30–40% year-on-year declines in rebar stocks) boost price flexibility.
Demand: Seasonal slumps (heatwaves, monsoons) dampen construction activity, but policy stimulus (e.g., property easing) may trigger short-term restocking. Export strength (e.g., surging rebar exports in H1 2025) offsets domestic oversupply but faces trade friction risks.
3. Cost Pass-Through
Raw materials (iron ore, coking coal) dominate mill costs. A rebound in coking coal (amid mine losses and safety curbs) or iron ore’s inventory-driven recovery supports steel prices, while raw material collapses (e.g., a 57% plunge in coking coal in H1 2025) exert downward pressure.
4. Policy Interventions
Policies regulate supply (e.g., emission controls, export restrictions) and demand (e.g., infrastructure bond acceleration, property relaxations). Sudden policy shifts—either stimulative or restrictive—create volatility.
5. Global and Market Sentiments
International trade flows (e.g., anti-dumping risks) and commodity cycles (dollar-denominated iron ore) link domestic prices to global markets. Futures market positioning and “expectation gaps” (policy vs. reality) amplify price swings.
6. Seasonal and Natural Risks
Extreme weather (heat, typhoons) disrupts construction, while logistical bottlenecks cause regional supply-demand mismatches, exacerbating short-term price volatility.
Post time: Jul-01-2025
